Forecast of the future situation of global energy consumption

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (ELA) released the International Energy Outlook (IEO) 2011 and assesses the international energy market by 2035. The reference case planning is based on a known technology, technology, population development trend, and current energy and environmental laws and regulations. Therefore, this forecast can be based on policy neutrality and used to analyze the international energy market. According to the IE02011 report, energy consumption in the world market may increase from 5.047 billion Btu in 2008 to 7.698 billion Btu in 2035, an increase of 53%. Due to different regulations and implementation policies that can influence energy market expectations, these forecasts may differ (see Figure 1). In addition, it is worth noting that there are slight differences between the data of “BP2012” and the existing “IE02011” until 2010. These differences are caused by different assumptions of different models and different methods used. Most of the increase in energy consumption occurs in non-OECD countries, and their energy demand is driven by strong long-term economic growth and increasing populations. Energy use in non-OECD countries increased by 85%, with an average annual growth rate of 2.3%. In contrast, energy use in OECD countries increased by 18%, with an average annual growth rate of 0.6%.

Forecast of the future situation of global energy consumption
Figure 1 World energy consumption from 1990 to 2035

However, the energy outlook remains uncertain. First, the recovery process of developed countries from the 2008-2009 recession was slow and uneven. In contrast, the rapid economic growth of emerging economies was partly due to strong capital inflows and higher costs of products or services. However, inflationary pressure is still an issue that requires special attention, and it is necessary to balance the foreign trade of major developing countries. Secondly, the increase in demand and the shortage of supply lead to rising oil prices as one of the reasons, because political and social unrest in many oil-producing countries will hinder oil production. In addition, the extensive damage to nuclear reactors caused by the Japanese earthquake and tsunami has severely affected Japan’s economy, which has also made the energy outlook for the next 10 years more blurred.

One of the fastest-growing non-OECD countries—China and India are least affected by the global economic downturn and will become the main consumers in the global energy market in the future, as their economies grew by 12.4% and 6.9% respectively in 2009 ( See Figure 2). Since 1990, the share of China and India in total world energy use has increased significantly. In 1990, the energy consumption of the two countries accounted for 10% of the world’s total energy consumption, and in 2008 it was 21%. In 2009, the energy consumption of the United States fell by 5.3%, which made China’s energy consumption surpass that of the United States for the first time.

Forecast of the future situation of global energy consumption
Figure 2 World primary energy and coal consumption forecast

It is expected that the strong economic growth of China and India will continue until 2035, so their energy use will double, accounting for about 31% of the world’s total energy consumption in 2035. The population growth is also a factor affecting the increase in energy consumption in these countries. Figure 3 shows the growth in energy demand in the United States. It is expected that the energy growth rate of China and India will be faster, and will be 68% higher than that of the United States by 2035.

Forecast of the future situation of global energy consumption
Figure 3 Energy consumption in the United States, China and India from 1990 to 2035

According to EIA-IE02011, the energy demand of other non-OECD countries will also have great growth. The rapid population growth and abundant Chinese resources have increased the energy demand in the Middle East by 77%. Energy consumption in Central and South America increased by 72%, and energy consumption in Africa increased by 67%. The slowest growth rate is expected to be the non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, with a growth rate of about 16%, including Russia and other former Soviet Union countries, because the population of these countries is declining, and the replacement of inefficient and cost-effective equipment has greatly improved energy efficiency. Fuel prediction: The changes over time of different energy usage predicted by the U.S. EIA are shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5 (ElA-IEO). It is expected that overall use of all energy sources will increase. The role of fossil fuels in meeting global energy demand is also clear. Petroleum-based liquid fuels are still the largest source of energy. In view of the prospect that oil prices will not fall in the short term, oil consumption will be the energy consumption with the slowest growth rate in the world, with an average annual growth rate of 1%. In addition, their share of the global energy consumption market will drop from 34% in 2008 to 29% in 2035, because many countries have begun to shift from liquid fuels to other directions when permitted. The consumption of renewable energy and coal has grown the fastest, increasing by 3% and 1.7% respectively. The prospects for renewable energy are improving because oil and natural gas prices are relatively high, and people’s concerns about the negative impact of fossil fuel use on the environment are encouraging the development and utilization of renewable energy around the world.

Forecast of the future situation of global energy consumption
Figure 4 Estimated global consumption of different fuel types
Forecast of the future situation of global energy consumption
Figure 5 Forecasts of different fuel consumption in the world from 2005 to 2035

Liquid fuels: global petroleum and other liquid fuels (including petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum-derived fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, coal-to-oil, gas-to-oil, and solid coal coke; and liquefied natural gas, crude oil consumed as fuel And liquid hydrogen) consumption has increased from 85.7 million barrels/day in 2008 to 97.6 million barrels/day in 2020 and 11.2.2 million barrels/day in 2035. Most of the increase in the use of liquid fuels is used in the transportation industry, accounting for about 82%. This is because there is no major technological advancement in the transportation industry, and energy consumption mainly relies on liquid fuels. The remainder of the growth is attributable to the industrial sector. Despite the increase in liquid fuel prices, the average annual growth rate of liquid fuel usage in the transportation industry is still 1.4%, and a total growth of 46% is expected from 2008 to 2035. In order to meet the growth of global demand, the production of liquid fuels (including the supply of traditional and non-traditional liquid fuels) has increased by 26.6 million barrels per day from 2008 to 2035.

It is estimated that the total oil production in the past 15 years until 2035 will account for 40% of the world’s total oil production. If the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) countries invest in increasing production to maintain their share at about 40%, the above forecast Estimates can be established. The world’s total oil production has increased. OPEC countries’ producers provide 10.3 million barrels per day of conventional liquid fuels (crude oil and leased condensate, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains), while non-OPEC countries provide the remaining 7.1 million barrels /Day conventional liquid fuel supply (EIA/IE02011). During the forecast period, the average annual growth rate of the production of unconventional resources (including oil sands, extra-heavy oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquid, natural gas liquefaction and shale oil) in OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries is 4.6%. Continued high oil prices make unconventional resources more competitive, especially when local politics or other “ground” constraints restrict the exploitation of potential traditional resources. (“Above ground” constraints refer to non-geological factors that may affect the supply of resources, such as national policy restrictions on resource utilization, conflicts or terrorist activities or lack of advanced technology, or resource price restrictions for economic development or shortage of labor/raw materials , Weather or environmental issues or other short-term or long-term geopolitical factors). In 2008, the global output of unconventional liquid fuels was 3.9 million barrels/day, and by 2035 it will increase to 13.1 million barrels/day, accounting for 12% of global liquid fuels. The largest supply source of unconventional liquid fuels during the forecast period will account for three-quarters of the increase. They are Canadian oil 4.8 million barrels/day, US bio-oil 2.2 million barrels/day, Brazil’s bio-oil 1.7 million barrels/day, and Venezuela 1.4 million barrels/day of overweight oil (EIA-IE02011).

Natural gas: Natural gas is still the fuel of choice for power and industrial development in many parts of the world. Many countries want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They choose natural gas because the carbon emission intensity of natural gas is lower than that of oil and coal. In addition, lower investment costs and high fuel efficiency make natural gas favored in the power industry. The expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity has caused dramatic changes in the supply of natural gas and the global market. In addition, with new drilling technologies and other advancements, it will be more economical to extract natural gas from shale basins, although it will cause new environmental problems. The end result is that the price of natural gas is lower and the demand is higher during the forecast period, thereby significantly increasing resource availability (ElA-IE02011). Although the content of unconventional natural gas (tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane) in the world has not been fully assessed, the IE02011 reference case predicts that the content will increase significantly, especially in the United States, Canada and China.

The continuous increase in estimated shale gas reserves has increased the US natural gas reserves by nearly 50% in the past 10 years. According to the IE02011 reference case, by 2035, shale gas will account for 47% of the total US natural gas production. If the production of tight gas and coalbed methane increases, the production of unconventional natural gas in the United States will increase from 10.9 tc in 2008 to 19.8 tcf in 2035. Unconventional natural gas resources are more important to China’s natural gas supply in Canada and China. According to the EIA-IEO2011 reference case, unconventional natural gas will account for 50% and 72% of China’s natural gas production in Canada and China in 2035, respectively.

In the next few decades, natural gas trade in the form of LNG is expected to increase. Most of the increase in LNG supply comes from the Middle East and Australia, and several new liquefaction projects will be put into use in the next few years. In addition, western Canada has proposed several LNG export projects; some people have also proposed to transform unused imported LNG equipment into liquefaction equipment, and then export equipment purchased by China to purchase natural gas. According to the IE02011 reference case, the world’s liquefaction capacity has increased by more than two times, from 8tef in 2008 to 19tcf in 2035. In addition, natural gas exports from Africa to Europe and natural gas exports from Eurasia to China may increase. This will be discussed in detail in Chapter 4.

Coal: During the forecast period, global coal consumption is expected to increase from 122.3QBtu in 2005 to 209.1QBtu in 2035, a growth rate exceeding 71%, with developing countries accounting for most of the increase.

Coal is still the main source of fuel, especially in non-OECD Asian countries. The rapid growth of the economy and a large amount of local resource reserves support the growth of coal use. The level of coal use in OECD countries remains at the level of 2008, resulting in uneven distribution of global coal use. World coal consumption increases by an average of 1.5% per year, while the average annual increase in non-OECD Asian countries is 2.1% (EIA-IE02011).

Although the 2009 global economic downturn had a negative impact on coal use in every region, the use of coal in China is still growing. Because of the lack of regulations and policies restricting the use of coal, non-OECD Asian countries consume coal to replace other more expensive fuels. During the forecast period, China accounted for 76% of the net increase in world coal consumption, and other non-OECD Asian countries accounted for 19%.

Forecast of the future situation of global energy consumption
Figure 6 World coal consumption in different regions from 1980 to 2035

Coal triggered the industrial revolution, first in the UK, and then gradually spreading to Europe, Japan and the United States. Today, coal is still essential for effective and reliable power generation. Coal can guarantee usable energy costs of US$1~2/MMBtu, compared to US$6-12/MMBtu for natural gas and oil (Massachusetts Institute of Technology report in 2007). The price of coal is also relatively stable. Compared with other major fuels, the combustion efficiency of coal is also relatively high, and the power generation efficiency is about 33%. Therefore, coal has become a low-cost energy source used to promote economic development. However, the environmental pollution caused by coal use is catastrophic. U.S. coal use in 2005 was 228 million Btu, and nearly half (49%) was consumed by OECD countries. In 2035, the coal demand of the country will reach 243 million Btu, an increase of 18%. This forecast takes into account the large amount of coal reserves and the heavy dependence of new and old power plants on the use of coal. Although investment in new coal-fired power plants may be disadvantageous due to the hidden risks of CO2 enrichment technology, the new generation of coal-fired power plants will account for 39% of the country’s power plants during the forecast period. Through the realization of advanced coal technology in the United States, the use of coal will provide more energy to China than expected. The total coal consumption of OECD European countries is expected to drop slightly from 128 million Bu in 2005 to 104 million Btu in 2035 (see Figure 2.6). Among them, the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Poland, the United Kingdom, Spain and Turkey are the main consumers. Lignite with low calorific value is the main energy source in this area, with a quality ratio of 47% in 2006. Although considering environmental issues, many countries have formulated policies to reduce the use of coal, and plans to replace or update existing coal-fired power stations are also underway, but forecasts show that coal will continue to play an important role in the overall energy structure. Germany is not only one of the largest energy consumers in the world, but also one of the largest coal-burning countries. However, the country’s resources are extremely limited, and energy supply security is still a problem. The second largest energy consumer in the European Economic Cooperation Organization is Poland. Coal occupies a dominant position in the country’s energy supply, reaching 63% of the country’s primary energy demand. This situation will continue to be maintained, because Lan has a large reserve of anthracite and miscellaneous coal, as well as its increasingly efficient infrastructure brought about by its economic and industrial recovery (Mills 2004).

OECD Asian countries are the main consumers of coal. In 2005, they consumed 91 million Btu of coal, accounting for 19.4% of total consumption in OECD countries. Coal demand in OECD Asian countries is expected to increase by 6%, reaching 97 million Btu by 2035.

Coal consumption in non-OECD countries is expected to increase to 1.625 billion Btu in 2035, an annual increase of 115% over 2005 (EIA-IE02011), mainly due to the rapid economic development of China and India, and energy Demand continues to rise (see Figure 7). The further increase in total world coal consumption demonstrates the importance of coal in meeting non-OECD energy needs.

In 1980, their primary energy consumption was less than 8% of the world’s total energy consumption, and it is expected to reach 31% in 2035. China has abundant coal reserves. The output of coal increased from 1.384 billion tons in 2000 to 3.24 billion tons in 2010, making China the world’s largest coal producer. The second largest is the United States, which produced 985 million tons in 2010. t (BP2011).

Forecast of the future situation of global energy consumption
Figure 7 Coal consumption in different non-OECD countries